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Monte Carlo Trading Simulator

Run 10,000+ simulations to test your trading strategy robustness with advanced probability analysis and risk modeling.

🎯 Bottom Line:

Monte Carlo simulation reveals that a 60% win rate with 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio has a 78% probability of positive returns over 100 trades.

Example: A trader with 60% win rate, $150 average win, $100 average loss, and 2% risk per trade on a $100K account has a 78% chance of profit and 15% chance of 20%+ returns.

Strategy Parameters

30%90%
$50$500
$50$500
0.5%5%
$10K$500K
50500
🎯

Ready to Simulate

Configure your strategy parameters and click "Run Monte Carlo Simulation" to see detailed probability analysis.

How Monte Carlo Simulation Works in Trading

  1. 1.
    Define Your Strategy Parameters:

    Input win rate, average win/loss amounts, risk per trade, and number of trades to simulate

  2. 2.
    Generate Random Scenarios:

    The simulator creates thousands of random trading sequences based on your statistical parameters

  3. 3.
    Calculate Outcomes:

    Each simulation tracks final balance, maximum drawdown, and return percentage

  4. 4.
    Analyze Probability Distributions:

    Results show probability of success, risk metrics, and potential return ranges

Frequently Asked Questions

Q:What is Monte Carlo simulation in trading?

A:Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random trading scenarios to test strategy robustness, helping traders understand probability distributions of potential outcomes and risk levels.

Q:How many simulations should I run for accurate results?

A:Our calculator runs 10,000+ simulations for statistically significant results. More simulations provide better accuracy but require more processing time.

Q:What does the probability of success mean?

A:Probability of success shows the percentage of simulated scenarios where you achieve your profit target without hitting drawdown limits, based on your trading parameters.

Q:How do I interpret the risk metrics?

A:Maximum drawdown shows the worst-case loss scenario, while Value at Risk (VaR) indicates potential losses at different confidence levels (95%, 99%).

Q:Can I use this for any trading strategy?

A:Yes, the Monte Carlo simulator works with any trading strategy. Input your win rate, average win/loss, and risk parameters to test strategy viability.

Q:What's the difference between this and backtesting?

A:Backtesting uses historical data, while Monte Carlo simulation generates random scenarios based on your statistical parameters, providing broader risk assessment.